For our final mock we let the fourth revolution takeover as we let computer AI choose the future Bengals.
Last year we ran 100 simulations of the first three rounds and hit 100 per cent on Joe Burrow, but busted on round two and three (albeit Higgins being picked twice in the third!). This year we upped our game ran 100 simulations of the full seven rounds with the graph index showing player frequency in descending order.
According to some of Bengals Twitter Illuminati, this pick is 96 per cent Chase.
Our 100 mock draft simulations gives a slightly different picture with just over 60 selections of Chase and just over a quarter picks for Sewell. I think this is probably a fair representation of how the Bengals draft room is at now, with the remaining 13 per cent picks of Pitts, Waddle and Slater more likely representing the internal notion of a trade down.
Both Chase and Sewell are elite prospects though and I highly doubt the Bengals do anything but pick one of those two.
This writer’s preference for Sewell is well known but the odds certainly seem to be with #TeamChase and that should create a scary WR corps of Chase, Higgins and Boyd- a trio with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of 31 overall.
Ja’Marr Chase certainly is a phenomenal prospect with elite athleticism and more of a Steve Smith or DeAndre Hopkins comparison than a new AJ Green/Julio Jones. The floor is high with Chase and an existing connection to Burrow plus the strength in the WR corps certainly helps his chances of impacting early.
In round two we still see a lot of top talents for selection.
Seeing names like Terrace Marshall Jr, Alex Leatherwood, Samuel Cosmi – all exciting prospects – as well as talented EDGE and athletic LB improvements.
Given the heavy favouritism for WR in round one, it’s no surprise to see the top five most frequent selections all be OL (names shown in key are in descending order of selection frequency).
Notre Dame’s LT Liam Eichenberg who is a true technician with his hands but who worryingly fell under 33inches in arm length and isn’t the greatest mover, is the top pick. Radunz, an FCS prospect, is second – a great run blocker but again inconsistent on the edge in pass pro and needs to add weight.
Our third most frequent choice would be my preferred pick for an OL here.
Cosmi has the athletic ability with 98th percentile results in the broad jump, 40 and short shuttle and just requires Frank Pollack to polish his rather scrappy technique.
Of the 38 per cent of picks not for the OL, we have 15 picks for WR, 14 for LB and nine at EDGE. All of the players picked there would gain my approval, although Rondale Moore, despite the exciting talent, may not be a fit with the slot role he would command. If the Bengals do go for Penei in the first don’t be shocked to take BPA in a LB or EDGE here and trust their ability to find WR3 outside of the top two rounds.
Round three is where the picture really starts to open up to a bigger group of names and a wider variety of outcomes.
Eighteen picks were for OL, 17 for TE/EDGE, 16 for WR, 14 for LB and 12 were Safety picks.
Jackson Carman, Trevor Lawrence’s LT, is an interesting name as a Fairfield (OH) kid who likely becomes a RT or OG at the next level. The likes of Brevin Jordan, Tommy Tremble and Pat Freiermuth would be exciting athletic additions at the TE position. Joseph Ossai, Carlos Basham and Quincy Roche are very exciting EDGE prospects in round three and, to me, D’Wayne Eskridge and Dyami Brown would be steals in the third Round. Cade Johnson would also be a nice pick at WR. The likes of Jabril Cox and Asante Samuel are probably the best players of the remaining positions unmentioned.
My Top Five first three-round simulations:
- Penei Sewell; Terrace Marshall Jr.; Brevin Jordan
- Sewell; Dyami Brown; Carlos Basham Jr.
- Ja’Marr Chase; Leatherwood; Basham Jr.
- Sewell, Zaven Collins; D’Wayne Eskridge
- Chase; Dillon Radunz; Joseph Ossai
All five of these and many more would have been celebrating the Bengals impending Superbowl victories. To me Marshall and Jordan would be steals to cement having your 15-year franchise tackle. Having Chase with OL and potential instant starters at OL and EDGE are also great drafts.
Round three is where the picture really starts to open up to a bigger group of names and a wider variety of outcomes.
Eighteen picks were for OL, 17 for TE/EDGE, 16 for WR, 14 for LB and 12 were Safety picks. Jackson Carman, Trevor Lawrence’s LT, is an interesting name as a Fairfield (OH) kid who likely becomes a RT or OG at the next level.
The likes of Brevin Jordan, Tommy Tremble and Pat Freiermuth would be exciting athletic additions at the TE position. Joseph Ossai, Carlos Basham and Quincy Roche are very exciting EDGE prospects in round three and, to me, D’Wayne Eskridge and Dyami Brown would be steals in the third Round, and Cade Johnson would also be a nice pick at WR. The likes of Jabril Cox and Asante Samuel are probably the best players of the remaining positions unmentioned.
My Top Five First three-round simulations:
- Penei Sewell; Terrace Marshall Jr.; Brevin Jordan
- Sewell; Dyami Brown; Carlos Basham Jr.
- Ja’Marr Chase; Leatherwood; Basham Jr.
- Sewell, Zaven Collins; D’Wayne Eskridge
- Chase; Dillon Radunz; Joseph Ossai
All five of these and many more hark back to the Bengals impending Superbowl victories. To me Marshall and Jordan would be steals to cement having your 15 year franchise tackle whilst having Chase with OL and potential instant starters at OL and EDGE are also great drafts.
Quarterback being the most frequent pick here will be an eyebrow-raiser, but with Brandon Allen only returning on a one-year deal, there certainly is room to pick up a QB to develop potential as trade bait down the road.
However, I’m not sure the Bengals do that this early in the draft, not to mention how near impossible that is (in the last 15 years, only four QBs drafted outside the top 40 have won more than 20 games as starter).
Beyond QB, OL (21 picks), CB (17), EDGE (15) and Safety (13) dominate with only 1/100 WR selections (Tutu Atwell).
Multiple exciting guard prospects are selected here with Alabama’s Deonte Brown and two guys I highly rate in Kendrick Green and David Moore. Of those CB picks, the main name that stands out is the long length in name and nature of Benjamin St-Juste. A few notable names to watch on the DL side are Duke’s Dimukeje, Elerson Smith and Rashed Jr on the EDGE and USC’s Jay Tufele from the DT position.
Moving further into day three, we see picks primarily focused on three positions: EDGE (26), CB (23), and OL (18) with TE, S and LB making up the rest (12, 10, 10).
My preference is certainly split between EDGE and TE here with exciting high-potential rush guys in Ogundeji, Odeyingbo, Hayes and Patrick Jones with a guy I see high upside in at the TE position in Boise State’s John Bates. At cornerback those 23 picks are aimed at guys like Washington’s Keith Taylor Jr., who had a good Senior Bowl, and Rodarius Williams- older brother of Browns’/former Burrow LSU teammate Greedy Williams.
At 202, we see picks split tightly between S (20), OL (18) and CB (17) with double digits for LB and TE too (11 each).
Kuony Deng At CB, Oregon teammates Deommodore Lenoir and Thomas Graham Jr, who were first and second in PFF’s Pass Break Up Stats in 2019 for non-draft eligible players, are frequently selected.
The last pick of the draft is unsurprisingly where we see the most variation in player selections with 42 different players getting the call from the CPU.
Of those 42, we 32 per cent being tight ends followed by a close combination of Safeties (16) and OL/LB (14).
Cary Angeline gets the most selections and comes from the school that brought the Bengals Germaine Pratt and Ryan Finley and brings an athletic 6’7 frame that could be a productive receiver but lacking in blocking.
Grant Stuard is a high-motor linebacker out of Houston that I like and would be a great special teams addition, as would Racey McMath a former WR target of Joe Burrow. Josh Imatorbhebhe would bring elite athleticism and size but is far from the finished product at WR. At the RB position, both Elijah Mitchell and Jarrett Patterson would be great depth additions to the RB room.
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