Our final mock of mock draft season is our fourth annual AI mock where we leave AI to do its work in 100 mock draft simulations. This time I’ve split the mocks across four databases (PFF, PFN, Fanspeak and ESPN). The AI has had some success before, flagging the likes of Dax Hill, Zach Carter and Jeffrey Gunter last year and Chase, Ossai, Carman and Cam Sample the year before. What will it come up with this year?
Words: Andrew Dockerill
NOTE: Graph labels are in descending pick frequency order, reading left to right (i.e. Kincaid picked most, Avila the least).
Top 3 Picks by position: TE (30), CB (21), OT (18)
The top three positions here match up identically to Vegas’ suggestion of how the Bengals will spend their most premium pick in this draft. Dalton Kincaid offers arguably the best hands in this entire draft while local prospect Michael Mayer offers a true high-floor, ready-to-go offering to the TE room – together they make up a quarter of the AI selections. Darnell Washington adds another five selections but 28 for him feels a little rich for me – he’s an exciting build but you’d really like to have a little more tape behind it. Deonte Banks and Emmanuel Forbes both received 10 picks each by the simulations – both would also be superb options for the Bengals at 28. Forbes has phenomenal production, breaking the FBS pick-six record but is scarily light – being the lightest recorded CB at the NFL Combine back to 2000 despite being 6’1″. Banks (a smooth press-man CB) falling to 28 would be my second favourite (semi-realistic) pick for the Bengals behind the man with eight selections, Darnell Wright. As covered in The Dream draft mock prior to this. Anton Harrison was the most frequently selected OT however with 10 selections. At only 21, he has plenty of upside but has only played one game at RT (23 at LT) so would seem unlikely come draft night. Both Calijah Kancey and Bryan Bresee would be exciting interior pass rush additions but the remaining names on this list would certainly not grade highly for me… although adding Jahmyr Gibbs would be fun!
Top 3 Picks by position: CB (28), EDGE (14), TE (13)
Cornerback leads the way here with double the pick selections of any other position group in round two, with Mr 4.26 DJ Turner having the most selections of that group. His arm length falls just a quarter inch under the 31” threshold that most look to so I’m sure the speed can balance out that knock-on draft boards. Miami’s Tyrique Stevenson, Texas A&M’s Jaylon Jones and South Carolina’s Cam Smith make-up nearly half of the CB selections and all tick the length and physical checkboxes. Tuli Tuipulotu is a name linked to the Bengals by a few sources, and he certainly has the motor on tape you’d like to see and leads the EDGE selections here for the AI simulations. Both Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Adetomiwa Adebawore would be appreciated selections given they’ve been in first-round conversations. Sam LaPorta would be the home run selection here (see Dream Draft for more) so to see him lead the picks here in frequency is very nice to see. Behind him at TE, Luke Musgrave certainly has some really exciting athleticism and an Alpine skiing champ background is always appreciated but the risk there is how little he’s been on the field. Outside of the top three position groups, Zach Charbonnet, Cody Mauch, Siaki Ika and Trenton Simpson would be the best of the rest for me not formerly mentioned.
Top 3 Picks by position: RB (20), CB (18), S (15)
Here come the running backs! Tulane’s Tyjae Spears was the second most frequently selected player here as we end our day two picks. Spears we’ve covered in our early mocks – he’s just super fun and I highly recommend checking out his USC bowl game tape. I have to say, I’d be happy with a lot of the names at the top of the list here in round three, with only Andre Carter and our second most frequent RB selection, Tank Bigsby, being ‘meh’ picks to me from the top 20 names. After RB, CB once again gets a lot of picks, as it always will in the draft, and the Bengals will certainly leave this draft with at least one new defensive back, if not more. Darius Rush is a top 10 CB for me so to get him this late is a very nice selection by the big AI in the cloud as he’d add a nice long, athletic CB to the Bengals’ secondary, albeit with some tackling and physicality questions to answer. Jammie Robinson leads the way for safety selections. He’s a productive tackler but undersized for the NFL and may be shifted to a nickel-only type role. Behind Robinson, Jordan Battle and Christopher Smith II are both big school safeties with top-tier experience, but limited athletes. However, both would be solid value here for me. JL Skinner and Sydney Brown also received selections but I’d be expecting to see their names called earlier than pick 92. Beyond those three positions, Blake Freeland and Byron Young would be high-upside options and we’ve already covered Jack Campbell in our dream draft.
Top 3 Picks by position: CB (21), OG (15), EDGE (13)
Eli Ricks leads the way for the top frequency position, CB, here in the fourth round but his pick, as would second most picked Jaylon Jones, would be a little disappointing. Ricks hasn’t lived up to his #2 CB ranking out of HS and hasn’t put much impressive tape since his freshman season back at LSU, while Jones – who also has the impressive size that Ricks carries – may have more success at safety at the NFL level. McClendon Curtis and Emil Ekiyor Jr offer representation for the guard position, with small-school Curtis being an exciting project while Ekiyor is more ready, but a lower-ceiling type of prospect. Although not a guard, Ricky Stromberg would be the most exciting one on this list for me and we covered that in our Dream Draft. Byron Young would be great value here as he would have been in the third round for me. We have to mention the freaky athletic project of Zack Kuntz who carries the best Relative Athletic Score for a TE in the history of that data. Behind those Chase Brown, Jakorian Bennett, Moro Ojomo and Roschon Johnson are all names we’ve talked about in previous mock drafts.
Top 3 Picks by position: CB (26), TE/OG (13)
Local Bearcats prospect Josh Whyle leads the way here in the fifth and he certainly ticks the height, weight and speed boxes but his receiving tape doesn’t hit the ‘wow’ factor. Again, lots of Stromberg love and Ekiyor is noted again. The addition of Jarrett Patterson is a new name from a prestigious OL pipeline school – his size/length is a little worry but his guard/center versatility could make him a nice back-up piece. At TE, Alabama’s Cameron Latu has a few selections – he strikes me as an ok back-up TE option, particularly if he can become a more consistent blocker. Blocking is also an issue for the next TE, Will Mallory, but again a decent back-up receiving TE option. DJ Johnson is an interesting EDGE prospect who spent nearly as long playing TE at Oregon as he did as an EDGE/OLB in a 3-4. He’s a long twitchy athlete with a good motor but instincts and age are a concern (25 in October).
Top 3 Picks by position: S (28), EDGE/CB (11)
A boom in safety selections here with over a quarter of AI’s picks being from that position. I’ll agree with the mock frequency and put Jason Taylor II at the top of my remaining safeties. He plays with a really high motor and shows solid instincts, perhaps a little over-aggressive but it’s a lot easier to tone down aggression than it is to bring it up in a player. Local prospect Ja’Von Hicks feels a bit early here but Chamarri Conner is an interesting option who can play both safety spots and was a special teams ace at Virginia Tech. At EDGE, we’ve covered Jose Ramirez in mocks before, a super-productive athlete, and Dylan Horton and Viliami Fehoko both are really nice high-motor options. Myles Brooks is an average athlete but a potential press man corner back-up option late in the draft, but Cameron Mitchell would be a steal here as some have him as high as a third-round grade for his fearless DB play. Of the remaining names Brandon Kipper is a name that the Bengals have had in for a visit and Oregon’s Alex Forsyth and TJ Bass would also offer low-end interior OL back-up options. Andrei Iosivas is an exciting heptathlete WR from Princeton and there’s a few interesting RB2 options in Evan Hull, Keaton Mitchell, Kenny McIntosh and Camerun Peoples.
Top 3 Picks by position: WR (14), CB/LB/RB (10)
Our final pick is led by WR and the first of those is a fun jumbo slot option in UCLA’s Jake Bobo. Now I’m slightly higher than the average on this guy – his 4.94 forty time has probably written him off a lot of draft boards but Bobo was consistently productive in college and I’d be happy to take a late-round flier on his ability to win contested catches as a chain mover back-up WR. Think Auden Tate… but slower. Anyways…. moving on! If you want more speed to pair with size then I’d look to Florida’s Justin Shorter, 6’4″ with 4.55 speed. Shorter was the #1 ranked WR in the 2018 recruiting class but just never really exploded into production (hasn’t had >580 yards in one season). There are enough boxes ticked though to try a late-round flyer on the guy. Our top selection Chris Rodriguez Jr has a chance to be a Samaje Perine-type replacement, if the off-field questions can be answered. Brandon Hill is a Pitt product who has some impressive athleticism and motor but lacks playmaker instincts. Trevor Reid is a freaky athlete for OT and was robbed of a Combine shot to prove that in my eyes. He’s certainly more tools than tape but one to draft and sit/develop. Of the remaining names not covered, Nesta Jade Silvera could be a nice Nose Tackle back-up for Reader, Oregon State CBs Rejzohn Wright and Alex Austin have chances to make rosters with good special teams skills. Elsewhere, Deuce Vaughn is a fun return/gadget option but I’m not buying the size translating and finally Puka Nacua is a guy we’ve covered before in mocks.
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